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5.2. Conduct a critical analysis of a posting by two of your classmates by the end of the workshop.
The topic of your discussion response should be your classmate’s posting and should be written as if you were reviewing his/her posting in an academic journal. Your discussion response should, therefore, answer the following questions as applicable:
Were your classmate’s arguments articulate and logical? Were the facts correct?
Was the interpretation your classmate provided reasonable and consistent with experts in the field? Was your classmate consistent with both the substance and intent of his/her references?
The focus for your critical analysis is not whether or not you agree with your classmate, but how well his/her position was presented. Each response should be at least 200 words in length and cite two academic sources
Peer Review 1:
Factors such as bond yields, trust, credit card balance of trade, economic growth, and global inflation dictate exchange rates. For instance:
There would be higher demand for American goods as US industry were comparatively more able to compete; this rise in prices for US products would prompt an appreciation. Thus, individuals with similar consumer prices appear to see an appreciation of the value of the currency. For e.g., in the post-war era, the lengthy depreciation of the Belgian D-Mark was linked to a comparatively lower growth rate.
If US inflation rises compared to other countries, depositing money in the US will become more appealing. From saving in US accounts, you can get a decent rate of return. Demand for Currency would then rise. This is referred to as "hot cash flows" and is a famous short element in assessing a dollar's worth.
Rising interest rates are triggering a spike.
Higher interest rate appears to cause a decline.
If investors think that in the future that pound will grow, they will now expect more to be able to turn a living. This rise in prices would trigger an increase of price. Therefore, exchange rate fluctuations do not necessarily represent economic conditions, but are mostly influenced by stock market psychology. For starters, if investors see news that makes an interest rate increase more possible, the devaluation of the dollar is likely to rise in expectation (Zhou, 2019).
This would also allow the value of the gold price to increase as British exports are becoming more affordable and profitable. For example, if the United Kingdom has long-term changes in labor force ties and better competitiveness, nice will be more competitive internationally but will contribute to an increase of the Pound throughout the longer term. This is a trend close to that of low inflation.
A solid U.S. dollar implies that dollar is valued at a pace that is record high. The words reinforcement and weakening share the same meaning in that they all apply over time to a shifts in the U.S. currency. A U.S. dollar encouragement means that this really buys more of other dollar than what it did before now (Chansa, 2018).
The reverse is a falling U.S. dollar-the strength of the U.S. dollar have dropped relative to other commodity in the sale of more U.S. dollars with the larger economy. For instance, if USD/NGN (a Nigerian naira dollar) is quoted at 315.30, that implies $1 USD = 315.30 NGN. If this quotation slips to 310.87, the U.S. Especially in comparison to the Nigerian naira, the currency is also said to have declined because $1 USD converts into less naira than it was before.
As the mishap occurred, the relative competitiveness of products from that nation is also increasing. Assume, for example, that an American candy bar costs $1. A South African can purchase an American candy bar for 11 rand before its dollar lost value. After that, it pays 15 rand for same snickers bar, an immense price boost. A South African snickers bar costing 5 rand, on the other side, has been much easier through contrast: $1 currently buys five rather than two Nigerian chocolate bars.
Since American candy bars have been very pricey, South Africans could start purchasing less dollars, and Americans could simply buy more rand since South African potato chips are now cheap. This, in particular, is beginning to impact the trade balance. South Africa will then continue to sell too much and export fewer, thus growing the imbalance in exchange.
Chansa, C., Sundewall, J., & Östlund, N. (2018). Effect of currency exchange rate fluctuations on Aid Effectiveness in the Health Sector in Zambia. Health Policy and Planning, 33(7), 811–820.
Zhou, D. (2019). Alternative Currencies in the Digital Age. Society Publishing.
Peer review 2:
The global economy is interlinked by trade. While there are only a few currencies that get the largest share of trade volume, almost all currencies in the world are traded at foreign exchanges. This is because a constant flow of currencies is necessary for a smooth trade (“7 Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, n.d.). Foreign Exchange rate is one of the most important means through which a country’s relative level of economic health is determined. A country's foreign exchange rate provides a window to its economic stability, which is why it is constantly watched and analyzed (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
The factors that affect the foreign exchange rate are as follows:
Inflation Rates: Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the price level or a fall in the value of money. A low inflation rate typically exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. Conversely, those with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currencies compared to that of their trading partners, and it’s also typically accompanied by higher interest rates (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
Interest Rates: Exchange rates, interest rates and inflation rates are all interconnected. An increase in interest rates cause a country’s currency to appreciate, as lenders are provided with higher rates and thereby attracting more foreign capital. A high interest rate may actually reflect the expectations of relatively high inflation, which may discourage the foreign investment (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
Balance of Payments: The balance of payments is also known as the current account. A country’s current account reflects balance of trade and earnings on foreign investment. It consists of total number of transactions including its exports, imports, debt, etc. A deficit in current account due to spending more of its currency on importing products than it is earning through sale of exports causes depreciation. Balance of payments fluctuates exchange rate of its domestic currency (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
Government Debt: Government debt by itself not necessarily a negative. It can help improve local infrastructure and creative economic growth. However, when it is too high, it can lead to inflation and currency devaluation. Foreign investors will sell their bonds in the open market if the market predicts government debt within a certain country. As a result, a decrease in the value of its exchange rate will follow (7 Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates, n.d.).
Terms of Trade: The terms of trade is the ratio of export prices to import prices and is related to current accounts and balance of payments. A country's terms of trade improves if its export prices rise at a greater rate than its import prices. This results in higher revenue, which causes a higher demand for the country's currency and an increase in its currency's value. This results in an appreciation of exchange rate (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
Political Stability & Performance: A country's political state and economic performance can affect its currency strength. A country with less risk for political turmoil is more attractive to foreign investors, as a result, drawing investment away from other countries with more political and economic stability. Increase in foreign capital, in turn, leads to an appreciation in the value of its domestic currency. A country with sound financial and trade policy does not give any room for uncertainty in value of its currency. But, a country prone to political confusions may see a depreciation in exchange rates (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
Recession: A recession has far-reaching effects for the economy of a country as a whole. The first area of the economy that is affected is the realm of interest rates. When the interest rates fall, the country becomes less inclined to acquire foreign capital. This, in turn, results in a lessened supply of foreign currency (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
Speculation: If a country's currency value is expected to rise, investors will demand more of that currency in order to make a profit in the near future. As a result, the value of the currency will rise due to the increase in demand. With this increase in currency value comes a rise in the exchange rate as well (“8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates”, 2020).
A country's importing and exporting activity can influence its GDP, its exchange rate, and its level of inflation and interest rates. A rising level of imports and a growing trade deficit can have a negative effect on a country's exchange rate. A weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive; conversely, a strong domestic currency hampers exports and makes imports cheaper. Higher inflation can also impact exports by having a direct impact on input costs such as materials and labor (Leslie Kramer, 2020).
When there are too many imports coming into a country in relation to its exports-which are products shipped from that country to a foreign destination-it can distort a nation’s balance of trade and devalue its currency. Maintaining the appropriate balance of imports and exports is crucial for a country. The importing and exporting activity of a country can influence a country's GDP, its exchange rate, and its level of inflation and interest rates (Leslie Kramer, 2020).
When the dollar depreciates against major foreign currencies, one generally expects to see current-dollar exports increase, as U.S. produced goods become cheaper abroad. The effect on current-dollar imports is more ambiguous: Depreciation increases the dollar cost of a given volume of imports, but the volume may decline to the extent that domestic goods and services are substituted for imports in response to the increase in the relative cost of purchases from abroad (“How do the effects of dollar depreciation show up in the GDP accounts?”, n.d.).
The relationship between a nation’s imports and exports and its exchange rate is complicated because there is a constant feedback loop between international trade and the way a country's currency is valued. The exchange rate has an effect on the trade surplus or deficit, which in turn affects the exchange rate, and so on. In general, however, a weaker domestic currency stimulates exports and makes imports more expensive. Conversely, a strong domestic currency hampers exports and makes imports cheaper (Leslie Kramer, 2020).
8 Key Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates. Apr 09, 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.compareremit.com
7 Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates. n.d. Retrieved from: https://www.businessblogshub.com
How do the effects of dollar depreciation show up in the GDP accounts?. n.d. https://www.bea.gov
Leslie Kramer. Mar 20, 2020. How Importing and Exporting Impacts the Economy. https://www.investopedia.com
5.4. Conduct a critical analysis of a posting by two of your classmates' by the end of the workshop.
The topic of your discussion response should be your classmates posting and should be written as if you were reviewing his/her posting in an academic journal. Your discussion response should, therefore, answer the following questions as applicable:
Were your classmates arguments articulate and logical? Were the facts correct?
Was the interpretation your classmate provided reasonable and consistent with experts in the field? Was your classmate consistent with both the substance and intent of his/her references?
The focus for your critical analysis is not whether or not you agree with your classmate, but how well his/her position was presented. Each response should be at least 200 words in length and cite two academic sources. Please strive to make your discussion responses ones that cause iron to sharpen iron.
Peer Review 1:
Our system has stayed focused on its Drinks for Life plan despite this year's crisis. "James Quincey, chairman and Chief executive officer of the Coca-Cola Group, said that we will be speeding our transition that's already ongoing, transforming our company to rebound sooner than wider economic growth. "While many obstacles still lie ahead, our success in the quarter gives me hope but we're on the right direction."
Revenues: Net revenues decreased by 9 percent to $8.7 billion. Organic sales (non-GAAP) decreased by 6 percent. Revenue results included a reduction in concentrate sales by 4 percent and a price/mix decrease by 3 percent. Relative to the previous year, the company announced an increase in patterns, with sales reductions compared to the previous year led by continuing pressure on away-from-home platforms partly offset by sustainable increases in at-home channels.
Margin: Operating margin, including comparability-impacting products, was 26.6 percent versus 26.3 percent in the previous year, while comparative EPS decreased 33 percent to $0.40, and comparative EPS (non-GAAP) decreased 2 percent to $0.55. The gross profit (non-GAAP) was 30.4 percent versus 28.1 percent in the previous year. The widening of operating margins was largely driven by efficient cost control, partly offset by top-line stress and tailwinds in the currency.
Earnings per share: EPS dropped 33% to $0.40, and equivalent EPS (non-GAAP) fell 2% to $0.55.
Market share: As the ensuring consistent increase seems more than balanced by the unfavorable channel mix due to the continued stress on away-from-home outlets, where group has a high share position, the company has lost volume market in overall non-alcoholic prepared (NARTD) beverage.
Cash flow: Money from activities for the year to far was $6.2 billion, worth 20 percent. Non-GAAP (operating cash flow) was $5.5 billion, off 17 percent .
International total industry performance patterns have continued to improve since the company's last earnings update in July. The rate was more steady in the fourth period than those in the second half, and the decreasing trend in international unit case size for the fortnight duration of October were high single digits. The business saw a higher degree of at-home channel revenue be too much compensated by continuing strain on away-from-home networks, that is influenced by the rate of lockout in a given market.
Although the organization is satisfied with the sequential turnaround, the overall effect on its near-term performance is unclear considering the uncertainties remaining around the poliovirus pandemic, such as a revival in separate markets. Pertinently, the balance sheet remains solid, and as it proceeds to man oeuvre thru the crisis, the company is secure in its capital role. New strategy asset allocation behavior, disciplined creativity, expanded marketing productivity and efficacy, strengthened system coordination, and organizational structure growth have provided the group greater faith in becoming stronger (Jeffry, 2015).
Cos of exchange rates and high fuel prices, the whole sector is under stress. However, this can be assumed that perhaps the soda sector is much more endangered than other sectors. The soda industry has 3 major players. The influence and competition of consumers in the industry is very important. The advantages of Coca Cola are focused on its energy resources such as brand equity, marketing creativity, powerful resources. Coca Cola have solid risk management policies that, considering the high variance of foreign currencies, have helped it to remain competitive. In general, in consideration of the competitive nature of the drinks industry, the implementation, refinement and execution of effective marketing campaigns, rapid decision-making, efficient resource use, total wealth management strategies and dividend payout strategies require urgent managerial consideration.
A variety of economic considerations, ranging from the expense of manufacturing and selling goods, to foreign currency rate fluctuations, fuel costs and weather conditions, influence the alcohol industry. Coca Cola has a distribution network and these as well as other economic factors are also impacting it. For e.g., Nestle's sales rose to 12.6 percent in 2005, yet sales fell by 6.3 percent due to the effect of the exchange rates. DANONE’s operating margins have also been greatly impacted by the rise in energy prices and have therefore agreed to raise their rates by up to 12% (Prasad, 2019).
The soft drinks industry is highly controlled, and disturbances, shifts and uncertainty pose threats and opportunities to beverage companies throughout the world's social - financial climate, including those especially in a highly fashion. In general, the slowing world economy, the deficit spending of significant economic forces, the steep increase in energy costs and rapid currency volatility are concerns of concerns that could possibly have harmful repercussions and put pressure on profitability for very many businesses. This is because the energy prices required to operate the plant and deliver the goods to the market are rising (Richards¸2015).
Prasad, M. S. V., & Sekhar, G. V. S. (2019). Currency Risk Management : Selected Research Papers. Vernon Press.
Richards, W. L. (2015). Currency : Fundamentals and Functions. First Edition Design Publishing.
Jeffry A. Frieden. (2015). Currency Politics : The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy. Princeton University Press.
Peer Review 2:
Multinational companies need to buy or sell foreign currency as part of their daily business. Therefore, these companies face foreign exchange risk every day. Foreign exchange risk is nothing but the possibility of losing money when you buy or sell currency because of unexpected changes in exchange rates. Some multinational companies are export or import firms. These companies are engaged in selling domestic goods abroad or buying foreign goods. Therefore, an American company that exports to Germany is a multinational company. So is an American firm that imports from Germany. Exchange rates affect both types of firms.
In this discussion, I would like to discuss about the impact of currency fluctuations on the revenue, earnings, and global market share of YUM! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut). The foreign firms need to have franchising agreements with domestic firms such as KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, to open these businesses in other countries. These domestic firms allow its production, sales, marketing, and management strategies to be used in a foreign market in exchange for a periodic payment (Ayse Evrensel. n.d.). At this juncture currency fluctuations plays a vital role on the revenue, earnings, and global market share of the domestic firms as well as the foreign firms. This initiates the franchising agreements between the two firms.
In recent years, Yum! has established a strong presence in dozens of foreign markets, including Canada, Japan, Australia and Malaysia - countries whose currencies have fallen this year against the dollar. In China, where the company operates 6,400 locations, sales declined by 4 percent year-over-year in the second quarter because of the strong dollar.
In its earnings report, the company stated that “foreign currency translation remains a strong headwind” and that it expected the exchange rate “to impact full year EPS (earnings per share) by about 5 percentage points.” (“8 Iconic American Companies that Have Been Hurt by the Strong Dollar”, 2015).
In the fourth-quarter highlights, it is stated that the foreign currency translation of the YUM! Brands have unfavorably impacted the divisional operating profit by $3 million. In the full-year highlights, it is stated that the YUM! Brands foreign currency translation have unfavorably impacted divisional operating profit by $46 million.
In the KFC division, the foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted operating profit by $3 million for the quarter and $39 for the year. In the Pizza Hut Division, foreign currency translation had no impact on operating profit for the quarter and unfavorably impacted operating profit by $7 million for the year (“Yum! Brands Reports Solid Fourth-Quarter Results and Completion of Strategic Transformation”, 2020).
YUM!Brands have entered into foreign currency forward and swap contracts with the objective of reducing the exposure to earnings volatility arising from foreign currency fluctuations associated with certain foreign currency denominated intercompany receivables and payables. The notional amount, maturity date, and currency of these contracts match those of the underlying intercompany receivables or payables. Their foreign currency contracts are designated cash flow hedges as the future cash flows of the contracts are expected to offset changes in intercompany receivables and payables due to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations ("United States Securities And Exchange Commission", 2020).
Ayse Evrensel. n.d. The Role of Multinational Firms in Foreign Exchange Markets. Retrieved from: https://www.dummies.com
8 Iconic American Companies that Have Been Hurt by the Strong Dollar. September 10, 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.usfunds.com
Yum! Brands Reports Solid Fourth-Quarter Results and Completion of Strategic Transformation. February 6, 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.businesswire.com
United States Securities And Exchange Commission. September 30, 2020. Retrieved from: https://s2.q4cdn.com