University of California Davis Somalia Population Trends Analysis: Social Science Answers 2021
University of California Davis Somalia Population Trends Analysis
In this exercise, you will analyze the population trends in a country of your choosing from 1955 to 2020. You will use demographic data you find online to create a graph displaying the crude birth rate, the crude death rate, and the rate of natural increase for your country over this period. You will use these data to think about the demographic transition unfolding in a specific place and time. You will practice working with demographic data and creating a demographic data graph using Google Sheets. You will practice writing with demographic data.
It is important to be familiar with the demographic transition, as well as with the measurement of population change and its components, specifically the crude death rate, the crude birth rate, and the rate of natural increase. Use these resources to refresh your memory about these topics: Population: An Introduction to Demography(pages 6, 12, 22-23, & 35-36), and my lecture on the demographic transition (????????).
Choose a country
You can choose whatever country interests you except Somalia (which is my example country). You don?t need to know anything about the country to complete the assignment. You will relate the country?s demographic trends between 1955-2020 to the demographic transition, so it will be useful to remember that different countries will be at different points of the transition during this period. In general, more developed countries, including countries in Western Europe, East Asia, and North America, will have already started the transition by 1955 and will be in Stage 4 by 200. Less developed countries, such as Mexico, Brazil, India, and Indonesia, will typically be in Stage 2 or the beginning of Stage 3 in 1955 and will move quickly through the 3rd stage to Stage 4 during this period. Lesser developed countries, such as the Central African Republic and Somalia, will typically be in Stage 1 or Stage 2 at the beginning of the transition and will move slowly through Stage 2 and the beginning of Stage 3 during the period.
Get your data and create a graph.
Create a graph displaying the rate of natural increase, the crude death rate, and the crude birth rate for your country for the 5-year periods from 1955-2020. The data you will use come from the UN World Population Program at https://population.un.org/wpp/ (????????). You can use this website to download your data, or you can extract your data from the google sheet I created here (????????). In this google sheet, find your country in each of the worksheets (one for rate of natural increase, one for the crude birth rate, and one for the crude death rate), and copy, cut, and paste the three rows of data into a Google Sheet that looks like this (????????):
1955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-2020Rate of natural increase20.321.62323.823.825.428.529.633.732.63230.830.9Crude birth rate4847.4474644.244.447.149.650.147.545.54341.9Crude death rate27.725.82422.220.41918.62016.414.913.512.210.9
These data are for Somalia. Please do not use Somalia in your exercise.
In Google Sheets, highlight all cells of data, including the row and column labels. Click the toolbar called ?Insert? and Select ?Chart.? A graph that looks like the one below (except with your data) should pop up:
In Google Sheets, right-click on the chart and select Chart & Axis Titles. Edit the Chart Title to include the country and the time period. Edit the Vertical axis title to state ?Rate per 1,000 population.? It is not necessary to label the horizontal axis (years) because it is obvious what they are.?
Your graph should now look like this (but with your own data, of course):
Click on the three dots in the upper right-hand corner of the graph and click on ?copy chart.? Paste the chart into a Google Doc or a Word doc.
Answer the following questions
In your Google or Word doc, which should display your finished graph, answer the following questions:
What were the crude birth rate and the crude death rate in your country in 1955-1960? Write your answer in complete sentences, and be sure to use proper units of measurement (e.g., ?births per 1,000 population? and ?deaths per 1,000 population?).
What were the crude birth rate and the crude death rate in your country in 2015-2020? Write your answer in complete sentences, and be sure to use proper units of measurement (e.g., ?births per 1,000 population? and ?deaths per 1,000 population?).
Remember that the rate of natural increase is equal to the birth rate minus the death rate. Describe how the rate of natural increase changed in your country over this period and explain why it changed as a result of changes to fertility and mortality. ?(Ignore international migration as a component of growth for the sake of this assignment.) State what the population doubling time was in 2015-2020, reminding the reader how to interpret this statistic. Because we are ignoring international migration, you can use the rate of natural increase to calculate doubling time. Remember to convert this to a percentage (move the decimal one place to the left) before calculating doubling time.
Give an educated guess about what stage(s) of the demographic transition your countries were in during this period. You do not have to be very precise in when the country transitioned from one stage to another; it is better to be cautious and uncertain. For example, you might state, about Somalia, that ?It appears that Somalia is in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition during the entire period from 1955 to 2020.? Then explain why you arrived at this conclusion. For example, you might state, ?Somalia is likely in Stage 2 because the death rate is lower than the birth rate and declining during the entire period, while the birth rate is high and steady.? However, note that one might argue that Somalia is beginning to enter Stage 3 after 2000 when the birth rate appears to begin to decline. Both are fine. Just use cautious language such as ?appears to? ?about? ?around? and so on.
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